The Joseph Effect and the Noah Effect

I recently posted about the challenges of predicting the future in my review of Nassim Taleb's book, The Back Swan. Another person who has had a long interest in the underlying patterns in how things change is fractal geometrician Benoit Mandelbrot.

Mandelbrot studied the historical data of some of the world's great rivers, in particular the Nile. He characterized the patterns he saw by borrowing from stories from Genesis: the "Joseph Effect" and the Noah Effect.

The "Joseph Effect" — after Joseph's interpretation of Pharaoh's dream of seven fat cows and seven gaunt ones to mean that there would be seven prosperous years followed by seven lean ones — describes persistence. He discovered that trends tend to persist; that is, if a place has been suffering drought, it's likely it will suffer more of the same. In other words, things tend to stay the way they've been recently. Some examples:

• Healthy people tend to stay healthy;
• Winning teams tend to keep on winning; and,
• Products that have been successful for the past five years will probably be successful next month.

On the other hand, the "Noah Effect" — after the story of the Great Flood — describes discontinuity. Mandelbrot found that when something changes, it can change abruptly. For example, a stock priced at $40 a share can quickly fall to $5 without ever being priced at $30 or $20, if something significant triggers its collapse.

As science writer James Gleick put it:

The "Noah" and "Joseph" Effects push in different directions, but they add up to this: trends in nature are real, but they can vanish as quickly as they come.

Thus, we can expect what's been happening to continue to happen, but we should also expect the unexpected.

Questions to think about: What patterns describe the flow of your current situation? Where do you see "Joseph" or "Noah" at work in the world around you?

Comments

[Tim Siedell]

You've just described the University of Nebraska football program over the last 37 years. The Noah Effect kicked in November 23, 2001. Not that anyone's counting or anything...

[Tom Haskins]

As I pondered these patterns, I realized that sometimes Joseph morphs into Noah. When the persistence is stable, Joseph remains the same. But there can also be steady declines, accelerations and inflations. Runaway costs, spending,and price increases lead to economic collapse. Rampant consumption, grazing, polluting lead to ecological cataclysms. Over taxation, imperial domination and minority subjugation bring about political ruin. When Joesph is drunken, Noah shows up with a vengeance.

[Free to think, Free to believe]

I've noticed that you also tend to have a tendency to persist on like topics...

However another persist trend, which both brooches the 'Noah' and 'Joseph' is the tendence for things to 'complicate' - that is one tech leads to another and then you may have an improvement on the first...

Robert Wright's book 'Nonzero' explores this both biologically and in our tendency to build things upwards...

[Roger von Oech]

Tim: I guess when Bob Devany and Tom Osborne were running the Nebraska football program, that was your "Joseph" period (predictably good teams shooting for the national championship). And then your "Noah" period at the beginning of this decade when the wheels came off the program. Question: with Callahan running the program, are you once again in a predictable period of mediocrity?

Tom: Good observation, and good food for thought. Also, Mandelbrot didn't rule many of the things you described; he just noted that after a long of period of the "same" (whatever it is), a big change can come seemingly and drastically out of the blue.

Free to think: Thanks for stopping back. "You also tend to have a tendency to persist on like topics." Indeed! :-) Maybe I'll surprise you and do my next post on Swedish films stars from the 1960s.

Thanks for your recommendation of Wright's book, "Nonzero." I read it in 2001 and picked up useful ideas from it — especially regarding turbulence in history.

[Lewis Green]

Roger,

I spent the first 50 years of my life (well 40 of them, anyway) ensuring the Noah Affect ruled my life and also affected those around me. Lots of jobs changes, lots of life changes, lots of locations changes, lots of mood changes, and lots of adventure. Despite my efforts, the Joseph Affect also played a strong role, as change often came abruptly and unexpectedly, despite my best effort to control change.

The past 10 years, for my family's sake and my mental health, I have tried to build some continuity into my life, and here's what's interesting--neither Joseph nor Noah seem to be present. I would say that I am now present to my own center and have found balance in the earth's tension--but I had to look to find it.

[Roger von Oech]

Lewis: Interesting story. Thanks for sharing it. Here's a side note: I first wrote about the "Joseph and Noah Effects" in a book called "Expect the Unexpected." It was published the first week of September, 2001. The next week was a big "Noah Effect" for just about everyone.

[Lewis Green]

Roger,

Now you have me worried. What is your next book entitled and when does it publish? I want to prepare my escape.

[Rednose]

Hi There

I've been trying to think of how either of these terms might apply to my life. Call me a pessimist, but all I can think is that I've been hit by the Plagues of Egypt for the most part of my life.

Though saying that, 2007 has been a really great year and I'm going from strength to strength. I think that the one parallel I can certainly draw from this is that when the troublesome river rises and you don't immediately start swimming for shore, it get's harder and harder to keep your head above water.

Can't think why I'm so "Half Empty" today.

I know, I'll finish by wishing you the happiest and most successful of Days!

[Tim Siedell]

Roger,

I think the Cornhuskers need a Lazarus.