This month represents the 25th anniversary of the first of my five "Success in Software" conferences that I created and produced from 1982-1984 in Palo Alto, California. These were wonderful events that explored, as their name suggests, what it took to be successful in the newly-emerging industry of micro-computer software.
Let me take you back to 1982. We were in the midst of a deep recession (Reagan's tax cuts hadn't gained traction quite yet). The then-current watchword of the Cold War was "Nuclear Winter." And the Japanese were the economic superstars.
And yet hope sprang from an unlikely quarter: people who hoped to make a buck developing and selling microcomputer software. This was because there was something new going on: a new tool — the personal computer — was becoming available to more and more people. The Apple II was selling well, the IBM PC was less than a year old, and Steve Jobs was on the cover of Time (back when it was an important magazine). Something was going on: opportunity. It was the "Gold Rush of the 80s."
My speakers included: Bill Gates (back when he was only worth $100 million), John Doerr (before he became a "Master of the Universe"), Trip Hawkins (Founder of Electronic Arts), Mitch Kapor (founder of Lotus), Alan Kay (Apple Visionary), Nolan Bushnell (Founder of Atari and Chuck E. Cheese), Robert Metcalfe (inventor of Ethernet and founder of 3Com), Stewart Brand (Whole Earth Software), Tom Perkins (VC), Esther Dyson, William Randolph Hearst III, and John Dvorak (industry pundits), Ted Leonsis (later to be AOL Vice Chairman), Fred Gibbons (Founder of Software Publishing), and many others.
Each of these events drew more than 600 people (room capacity): about a third venture capitalists, a third engineers, and a third marketers. They were like a "Rock Concert for Entrepreneurs." Some companies were born at these events. A lot of contacts were made. Many ideas were shared.
There was a lot of excitement in the air then. And it reminds me of the current enthusiasm for Web 2.0 and social networking applications. How wonderful to witness this frenzy once again.
Indeed, there is a kind of "Wild West" feel to "Web 2.0 World." If you're participating in it, thank your lucky stars! And enjoy it! (Because it won't last forever.)
Question: How would you compare the "micro-computer software" era of the early 80s with the current Web 2.0 era?
[Bonus question: compare that 64K PC in young Bill's photo to an iPhone.]
Wow! I wrote about these changes this morning, Roger. That confirms my hunch that what comes after Web 2.0 is synchronicities, uncanny timing, being in synch with each other.
I see the PC hardware as the rocks. The OS and App software sprung up like weeds, composted through numerous versions and yielded highly evolved, integrated software suites: MS Office, Adobe Creative, desktop video, signature game titles, etc.
Around 1994-96 the World Wide Web became the rocks, then ecommerce, online gaming, email sprung up like weeds, composted through several versions that yielded Google searches, histories and unique recommendations while shopping, surfing web sites or preparing documents.
Around 2004, RSS feeds and widget/feed reader subscriptions became the rocks, while Web 2.0 content generation sprung up like weeds. Photo, video, slide, blog, wiki uploads are evolving into a terrain where we can learn what we want, when we care, for as much time and as deeply as we want to go.
Posted by: Tom Haskins | 20 July 2007 at 08:29 AM
Tom: Thanks for your comments. I think your metaphor is delightful.
The flip side of this comment: "that what comes after Web 2.0 is synchronicities" is that maybe everything will just be "in the air" and it will be more difficult to have a truly original thought.
Posted by: Roger von Oech | 20 July 2007 at 04:45 PM
(difficult to have an original thought) Not for you, Roger. I read somewhere about Ning today and thought of you. I've been out of touch and comment as I started a new corporate job Monday and Thursday was my birthday (not an excuse, just information). I am impressed at the variety and depth of your knowledge and discourse. Plus I now know for certain where to go for creativity tools.
Posted by: Valeria Maltoni | 20 July 2007 at 07:55 PM
Roger: I agree with Valeria that being an oracle for others may be more significant and less limiting an experience than coming up with original ideas.
All of us are creating experiences. Some of us are creating experiences of being creative. Many are creating experiences of being stuck, uncreative, in need of help getting creative. Some are successful at creating the experience of that help they need showing up synchronistically.
Posted by: Tom Haskins | 21 July 2007 at 09:34 AM
What a cool way to look at this. Roger, your first hand perspective and experience always keeps things interesting.
And if you fast forward a little bit, to the early nineties when I was in college, you'd have companies like Apple, Microsoft and IBM dominating the PC and software market. Only back then Apple was in it's "gray" phase. Their hadware and software lacked innovation. The brand became dilluted as Apple "clones" were permitted to run the Apple OS.
Loyalty to the company was in decline. Out of frustration, I began to use a PC at work.
Then Steve Jobs came back and we all know the rest of the story.
Makes you wonder if any of the upcoming start ups will go through a simlilar experience.
Posted by: david armano | 22 July 2007 at 08:10 AM
Valeria: Thanks for the kind words. Good luck in your new job!
Tom: "Some are successful at creating the experience of that help they need showing up synchronistically." What a deliciously cosmic statment. Perhaps the subject of a future post.
David: "Makes you wonder if any of the upcoming start ups will go through a simlilar experience." I'm sure they will.
There will be a shakeout at some point. VCs will stop throwing money into areas they feel are too concentrated. A lot of the fun and whimsy will exit as well. Enjoy today!
Posted by: Roger von Oech | 22 July 2007 at 11:24 AM
Web 2.0 rocks, otherwise we weren't here blogging and commenting, but you know, Roger, I lack Web 1.0's romantic appeal. Dream is always bigger than the reality. Now there is much more opportunities for an individual. But I am still moved remembering first Geocities pages which looked like other planets, Netscape Gold, sparkling Yahoo clubs, Zeldman's then more brisk ramblings ("Not that popularity ensures quality"), etc. etc.
Bonus link: Hugh McLeod's Web 8.0 :)
Posted by: Vitaly Kolesnik | 24 July 2007 at 10:40 PM
Vitaly: "I lack Web 1.0's romantic appeal." Interesting, but fun perspective. But I'll bet you don't miss dialup modems!
Posted by: Roger von Oech | 26 July 2007 at 08:43 PM
i'd say the 80s had much more of a crazy-scientist-lone-ranger feel. yes, it was an industry (otherwise bill gates wouldn't have been worth 100 million) but it was very much a world of engineers, hobby technologists and people like me, eternally curious about what will happen tomorrow - oh, never mind tomorrow: next week :)
today, web 2.0 is still a mystery to most people - believe me, i talk to a lot of non-tech people. but what has changed is accessibility. my mother doesn't have a blog and hasn't read more than three posts in her life but she can if she wants to, and more importantly than that, she knows that.
Posted by: isabella mori | 10 August 2007 at 11:06 AM