The Future of Air Travel?

Creative Challenge Question: "What do you think will happen in commercial air travel in the next three years (by 2011)? What are the ramifications for other industries such as tourism, etc.?

With petroleum at record highs of near $140/ barrel, the airline industry is among the hardest hit.

• United Airlines just announced that it is laying off 950 pilots.
• Aviation experts predict that air capacity will shrink by 20% beginning this fall.
• Airlines are un-bundling services such as checked luggage and are now charging for them.
• Boeing and Airbus face having up to one-third of their new orders canceled.

It certainly seems like the end of an era. So, how do you think this will all shake out in the next three years?

In your opinion, what things will change dramatically? Who loses, and who benefits?

Comments

[Jay Ehret]

American and other airlines are reacting to the market and not thinking pro-actively about the future. They are just juggling numbers and trying to spread the risk. It's a can't-win scenario.

But times of change are times of amazing opportunity. The airline that can shift paradigms and create a new model can fly to the top of the industry. Charging for checked luggage and adding fuel surcharges is obviously not that paradigm.

Rising ticket prices means air travel will no longer be a commodity. The objective cannot remain cramming as many people as possible on to as many planes as possible. We may actually see a return to great service and remarkable flying experiences as a result.

[Saurabh Garg]

Travel is one of the most basic human wants. Historically we had to travel for finding food, water, shelter etc.

Now we are talking about travel for leisure, business and personal reasons.

Travel as a business will not go anywhere, modes might change. In next three years, we might have new modes of travel.

We might get trains that are faster on rails than most commercial airplanes.

Airlines would have to consolidate in terms of operations and exploring synergies. I can see a change in which airlines will operate. They will become synonymous to chartered buses and taxis. Tickets would be sold for the route, not by the airline. Once an agent has 200 or so tickets, he will book a flight and fly these people.

Difficult to explain in words but this is very possible and will happen for sure.

Regards,
SG

P.S.: If I could think longer than 3 years, I think with advances in technology, teleportation might be a reality very soon.

Then there are things like clusterization that might happen. All commerce will start getting self reliant in terms of location. Businesses would rely more on local businesses and travel for business would almost become extinct. With new technologies to communicate, the need for travel would become redundant.

[Dr. Zoltan!]

Fuel costs may be going up, but there is less reason to use fuel these days. More and more people are working on computers from home -- I am one of them.

The collective gas tank of the human race seems to be running out, and they might have to get used to riding their bike or walking for a while. It would surely do the U.S. a lot of good to get out there and burn off some calories and have some time to THINK.

I have personally never owned a car, and I am almost 33 years old. I choose to live in communities that offer practical public transportation (buses, subways), bike paths, et cetera. From what I understand, a lot of countries in Europe have figured this out long ago.

Let's save our fuel for important things, rather than cruising around and shopping. We're better off applying our creativity and imaginations, which are the most powerful tools we have.

Automatically linking transportation to a "machine" is an arbitrary limit.

I honestly believe that the human race can master teleportation and won't need these hulking, heavy cars and planes to carry us around. If the humans race wasn't so occupied with perverse reality shows and junk food, we might already see it as a reality.

[Roger von Oech]

Jay: One can hope that higher fares will mean a little more room on the cabin, and maybe a little more "civilized" set of flying conditions (like in the movies when people flew in the 1950s and 1960s). On the other hand, if the airlines are trying to maximize yield, I'm sure it will work out that way.

Saurabgh: Interesting model and thesis. You're probably right about business travel: it's always paid the premium going rate. But if the casual traveler decides not to fly 30% of the time, then that's a significant change.

Dr. Zoltani: I remember during the first "Oil Shocks" of the mid-1970s it was argued (by some OPEC producers) that petroleum was far too valuable to be wasted on transportation; its better application, they argued, was the base material for plastics et al.

[Doug]

Why can't the railroads put together a good bunch of lobbyists?
Some high speed trans on the busy point to point routes would really help the strained system.
Regulation is the reason the US is not a leader in rail transport anymore. We could use some good old fashioned rail tycoon robber barons once again.
Save the airplanes for over-seas routes and east to west cost.
I know I would ride if the prices were better and I did not have to arrive 3 hours before I was actually moving. The fuel savings per person/pound for rail are enormous. Plus you could take 2 full bags!

[My Awesome Blog]

The solution is right in front of us. Drill for oil here. If we don't drill, someone else will. As a matter of fact, I believe China is drilling for oil not too far off the coast of Florida.

[David S. ( @seemsArtless on Twitter )]

Unfortunately it will take a lot longer than 3 years for North America to fix its pathetic train infrastructure, but let's hope THIS energy crisis will increase interest in getting the major U.S. and Canadian cities connected in the east, at least.

There is interest in lighter-than-air travel in the vacation travel market, as well as corporate interest. When private jets are no longer a status symbol something needs to come along and take their place. The scenes from The Golden Compass come to mind.

[moon festival]

The fuel prices are rising every day and airline companies are finding it tough to survive as the competition is high and output is less.

so they need to figure out in time how to cope with these increasing rates as with time they may go much higher..

[kim]

Many airlines may start having to operate more like buslines --- but HAPPY, FRIENDLY buslines where people fill the the plane, pack their own lunches, and don't provide any amenities more than a safe, pleasant and efficient ride to a destination. If you want, and can afford, to be treated like royalty, go on your own expensive, exclusive flight. Southwest and AirTran already do a pretty good job of what I think the future of the airlines for common travelors looks like.

[DorthyCabrera27]

People deserve good life time and loan or small business loan can make it better. Because people's freedom is based on money.

[-irene(=]

Well, what to say? My post wouldn't be a prediction because, u know,, 2011 is already here...

[-irene(=]

But instead of making my prediction about 2011, I will predict forward. According to the news by 2050, there will be airplanes which will fly generating no significant pollution. You know, this is great! I like this ecological idea. I wish it existed a world with lots of creative people & inside these people, many wishes wanting so badly to enhance our Earth by giving it many letups instead of many pollutants.

* You may say I'm a dreamer♪,, but I'm not the only one ;)

[Ron]

At some point in time, maybe 100 years from now, the standard airplane that we know today will be gone.

They polute too much and fuel cost too much. Travel will be about high speed trains and boats.